From the book: "Spain beyond Myths", Carlos Alonso Zaldivar and Manuel
               Castells, Alianza Editorial, Madrid, 1992.

The following is an analysis of the results of five stimulations carried out with the aim of examining the prospects of the Spanish economy. These estimates are as follows:

• The MIDE model ( modelo Macroeconomico Intersectorial de Espana, Macroeconomic Multisectorial Model of Spain ), elaborated by the Fundacion Tomillo, the results of which were presented in October 1991. It contemplates the 1990-1995 period.
• The Wharton-UAM model, elaborated by CEPREDE (Centro de Prediccion Economica, Centre of Economic Forecasting) at the Autonomous University of Madrid. The present version, published in November 1991, contemplates the 1991-1995 period.
• 1992-1996 macroeconomic projection presented by the the Government in April 1992 as the scenario for the "Programme of Convergence" with Europe.
• Forecasts by the Commission of the European Communities for 1992 and 1993, published in its Annual Report 1991/92 in December 1991.
• Forecasts by the OECD, for the period 1991-1993.

All the forecasts are based on the fact that the world economy went through a period of slower growth in 1990 and 1991. The differences observed as regards the growth rate of the GDP in the coming years are due to different interpretations of how long the recession will last and how deep it is, above all in the USA and the UK. Another factor that should not be overlooked is that the Fundacion Tomillo and CEPREDE forecasts, like those by the EC were made prior to the summit of the Twelve in Maastricht, which means that they do not take into account the objectives of economic convergence established at the said summit. These have led to convergence plans, like the one made by the Government, providing a macroeconomic synopsis adjusted to the new minimum economic conditions needed in order to go on the final stage of Monetary Union in the European Union.

Please, ask for any of the above mentioned models in the menu. Thank-you.