In sum, all the scenarios for the Spanish economy forecast that the GDP will recover in the short term and will reach growth rates of more than 3% in 1993, with the exception of MIDE's optimistic hypothesis which estimates growth of more than 3% for 1995.

As regards inflation, defined as the private consumption deflator, most of the models, with two exceptions (MIDE until 1993), consider that it will gradually, though slowly, fall throughout these years, showing that this variable is resistant to downward pressure. Estimates for 1993 range from 3.13% (2.75% in the case of a "hand landing") forecast by MIDE to 5.8% predicted by CEPREDE.

There are contradictory forecasts for the external deficit, that is, the deficit of the balance of payments on current account as a per-. centage of the GDP. MIDE and the Government's macroeconomic synopsis forecast a gradual reduction and CEPDRDE a continual increase up to 3.8% of the GDP in 1995, whereas the conclusions of the Commission of the European Union and of the OECD foresee a certain stability in this variable.

All the forecasts agree in that unemployment is going to fall in the coming years, although the forecasts by the Government and the E.U. Commission and the OECD indicate a smaller decrease, placing the unemployment rate for 1993 above 15% as does MIDE's pessimistic hypothesis.

With respect to the data available on the public debt as a percentage of the GDP, while CEPDRDE considers that is going to increase over the coming years, the Commission of the E.U., the OECD and the Government believe that it will fall.