The CEPREDE forecasts are based on the fact that the lower growth recorded at the international level in 1991 due to the recession in the USA and the UK will change to reach maximum growth levels in 1994 and 1995. This will go hand in hand with a slight upturn in inflation. Moreover, world trade will continue to rise slowly from its 1991 minimun.

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                               1991     1992     1993     1994     1995
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GDP growth rate................2.8      2.7      3.2      3.3      3.3
Private consumption deflator...5.7      6.2      5.8      5.2      5.2

External deficit as a 
percentage of GDP.............-3.1     -3.3     -3.5     -3.7     -3.8

Unemployment rate as a
percentage of active 
population....................16.0     15.4     14.9     14.3     13.7

Public debt as a percentage of
GDP...........................-2.9     -3.2     -3.4     -3.6     -3.8

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